Feb 23, 2023

Bettor eyes on: Dota 2 Lima Major 2023

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Dota 2’s Lima Major has a few firsts.

It’s the first Major of the 2023 Dota Pro Circuit (DPC), where teams can measure themselves against international competition. It’s the first time a Major is hosted in South America: Lima makes perfect sense considering the immense popularity of Dota 2 in Peru. And it’s the first time we’re seeing a return to regular programming for Dota 2 since COVID disrupted competitions back in 2020.

Dota 2 Majors are some of the biggest stepping stones for teams hungry to book their place at this year’s edition of The International (TI), the apex of professional Dota. The Lima Major offers the winner USD $200,000 in prize money and 400 DPC points – the latter crucial to making it to TI. 

South American esports fans bring the same passion and fervour to esports as they do football, and the bests teams in the world all come together in the pressure cooker of Arena 1 in Lima. LATAM-focused operators in particular should capitalise on the fact that it’s the first time the Major has come to the continent, with all the action taking place at times that suit their audiences best.

While every Major is different, to get an idea of how popular the Lima Major will be with bettors it’s worth reflecting on the performance and growth of the first Major in previous years’ competition.

What the data says

At PandaScore, we’ve reviewed the data from the first Major of the season from the past two years to grasp what the Lima Major will look like. Looking at 2021’s One Esports Singapore Major and 2022’s ESL One Stockholm, we found that there’s plenty of excitement around the first cross-regional tournament of the year. 

Overall turnover for the first Major of the DPC season grew by 130% from Singapore to Stockholm, with the following split of turnover over the key stages of the tournament:

  • Group Stage: 39.3%
  • Playoffs (excluding Upper, Lower and Grand Finals): 46.9%
  • Upper and Lower Bracket Finals: 8.9%
  • Grand Final: 4.9%

Seeing the lion’s share of turnover attributed to the group stage and early playoff games makes sense considering the sheer volume of games that come with the tournament format. But seeing an average of 13.8% of tournament turnover attributed to the final 3 matchups indicates that while these Majors don’t attract the Grand Final volume of The International, there’s still a strong core following of fans throughout the tournament. 

Important contextual factors to these results include Singapore running in the midst of COVID, and Stockholm’s European timezone giving bettors in these markets friendlier times to watch and wager. Timezone will be an important factor at Lima, with matches perfectly placed for audiences in the Americas, but less so for Europe.

Fan favourite teams

Who wins, progresses, and ultimately takes the title is incredibly influential on the overall turnover and performance of a given tournament. Big-name teams attract a lot of volume, mid-level teams offer interesting underdog bets and in many cases, fans will bet on their home team – especially if the timezone is reasonable. 

Looking over the Singapore and Stockholm tournaments, these were the top 5 most bet on teams:

2021 One Esports Singapore:

  1. Invictus Gaming (the eventual winners)
  2. Evil Geniuses
  3. PSG.LGD
  4. Vici Gaming
  5. Team Secret

2022 ESL One Stockholm:

  1. OG
  2. Tundra Esports
  3. Fnatic (who crashed out early in the playoffs)
  4. TSM
  5. Team Spirit

For the Lima Major, the traders at PandaScore suggest Team Liquid, BetBoom Team and current TI champions Tundra as the teams to watch!